【关键词】 出口 人口 制成品国际贸易 Export Population Manufactured Goods International Trade

　　【摘 要】 现有国际贸易理论主要探讨了国际贸易的发生机制，但没有给出一国商品出口总量决定的有效方法。本文认为，研究商品出口必须注意区分商品结构，鉴于制成品出口在全球商品出口中占据最主要的地位，本文以制成品出口为研究对象，构建了衡量一国制成品出口规模的理论框架与实证模型，经大样本检验，得出结论：一国制成品出口的全球占比主要由人口规模、人口密集度、人口年龄结构、资本形成能力、经济发展模式、贸易成本比较与收益转换等六大因素共同决定。本文运用上述理论与模型，对中国1985—2010年制成品出口的规模形成进行了理论解释，并通过六种情景模拟出了中国2010—2030年的制成品出口增长态势，做出如下预测：2010—2020年仍将是我国制成品出口快速增长的时期，2020—2030年期间我国制成品出口的全球占比将达到25%左右的历史峰值，并进入高位持续期；其后，主要受制于人口抚养比的大幅激升，我国制成品出口全球占比的长期增长趋势将终结，由此进入下降阶段，这将是一个历史性的转变。 The existing international trade theory focuses on the mechanism of the international trade, but does not give an effective method to explain a country's goods export proportion in the world. We think that research of merchandise exports must distinguish commodity structure; whereas the trade of manufactured goods is the most important in international trade, we select the manufactured goods as the research object and establish a theory frame and empirical model for the measuring of a country's manufactured goods export proportion in the world. Through the large sample test, we get the following conclusion: A country's manufactured goods exports proportion in the world is decided mainly by the amount of its population, population density, population age structure, capital formation, economic development mode, trade cost comparison and profits convert. We apply the above theory and model, soundly explain China's manufactured goods export growth in the 1985—2010 years and simulate its developing in 2010—2030 period in six situations. Then, We make the following prediction: the 2010—2020 period will still be the golden era for China's manufactured goods export growth; during the 2020—2030 period, the global proportion of China's manufactured goods export will enter into a high level stage, and will reach the historic peak about 25%; then, mainly by the large and swiftly increasing of the dependency ratio of population, the long-term growth trend of China's manufactured goods exports will be stop, thus China's manufactured goods exports would enter into a declining stage.